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National Weather Service Feed


000
ABNT20 KNHC 300549
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Six, located a few hundred miles east-southeast
of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean.

A trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of Erika is
moving quickly west-northwestward across the Florida Straits this
morning. Although there are no signs of redevelopment at this time,
upper-level winds could become marginally favorable for tropical
cyclone formation over the next day or so. Regardless of this
system's prospects for regeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty
winds are expected to spread across portions of South Florida and
the Florida Keys today. This activity should spread northwestward
and then northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late today
and on Monday. Additional information on this system can be found in
marine forecasts and local forecast products issued by the National
Weather Service and the meteorological service of Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2015 SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 30 the center of FRED was located near 12.4, -18.9 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

000
WTNT31 KNHC 300846
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2015 SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 18.9W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Verde Islands

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 18.9 West. Fred is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, Tropical Storm Fred is expected to move through the Cape
Verde Islands by late Monday and into Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Fred could be near hurricane strength when it moves
through the Cape Verde Islands late Monday and on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast within the warning area by early Monday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane conditions are also
possible within the watch area on Monday.

RAINFALL:  Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches on Monday. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

000
WTNT21 KNHC 300845
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
0900 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  18.9W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  18.9W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  18.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.4N  20.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.6N  22.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.0N  23.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.0N  25.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N  29.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 19.2N  34.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N  38.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  18.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
Issued at 500 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

000
WTNT41 KNHC 300847
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
500 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

The convective cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has continued
to improve this early morning with the development of a small CDO
feature and a tightly curved band in the western and southern
quadrants. A 0542 UTC SSMI/S microwave satellite image further
indicated that the convective band wraps almost completely around a
primitive mid-level eye feature. The initial intensity is raised to
35 kt based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, and
this intensity could be conservative based on the impressive SSMI/S
satellite signature. This makes Fred only the fourth Atlantic
tropical storm to form east of 19W longitude in NHC's database.

The initial motion remains 305/10 kt. There is no change to the
previous forecast track reasoning. Fred is expected to move
northwestward toward a weakness just northwest of the Cape Verde
Islands within a deep-layer subtropical ridge. The mid-tropospheric
trough that is responsible for the weakness is forecast by the
global and regional models to shift eastward over the next 24-36
hours, which should allow the ridge to build back in, forcing Fred
on a west-northwestward to westward track after 48-72 hours. The
latest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous
forecast track, so the new track forecast is essentially just an
update of the previous advisory, and lies close to the GFEX and TVCA
consensus model solutions.

Fred is expected to remain in favorable environmental and oceanic
conditions for the next 36 hours, characterized by vertical wind
shear less than 10 kt, mid-level humidity values greater than 70
percent, and sea-surface temperatures of 27.5-28 deg C. The main
inhibiting factor is decreasing instability ahead of the cyclone
after 24 hours. However, there should still be enough available
instability to support deep convection that will allow at least
steady strengthening through 36 hours to occur, and Fred could still
reach hurricane status before or while it moves through the Cape
Verde Islands in 36 hours or so. After 48 hours, southwesterly
vertical wind shear is expected to begin affecting the cyclone while
Fred is moving over sub-27C SSTs. These less favorable conditions
should combine to induce a gradual weakening trend. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN
intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 12.4N  18.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 13.4N  20.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 14.6N  22.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 16.0N  23.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 17.0N  25.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 18.5N  29.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 19.2N  34.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/0600Z 19.8N  38.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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