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National Weather Service Feed


000
ABNT20 KNHC 271147
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

Corrected to include mention of possible aircraft reconnaissance
mission for system in the Gulf of Mexico.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a weak low
pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has
increased during the past few hours. Some additional development is
possible before the system moves inland over southern Texas and
northern Mexico on Thursday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. This
system is now expected to move generally westward across the
Caribbean Sea with little development during the next few days.
However, environmental conditions could become favorable for some
development by early next week in the western Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Friday. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development
thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan

...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHWARD WELL WEST OF BERMUDA... As of 8:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 31.5, -72.0 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Issued at 800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

000
WTNT34 KNHC 271151
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
800 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHWARD WELL WEST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 72.0W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. CRISTOBAL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

CRISTOBAL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA LATER
TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2014

000
WTNT24 KNHC 270833
TCMAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  71.9W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT.......180NE 175SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  71.9W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N  72.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.4N  71.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...180NE 175SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.7N  69.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 37.5N  63.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 40.5N  56.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE  70SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 48.0N  43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...180NE 220SE 200SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 53.0N  32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N  71.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



Issued at 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

000
WTNT44 KNHC 270833
TCDAT4

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

The cloud pattern has changed from 12 hours ago when there was deep
and symmetric convection near the center. Currently, the satellite
presentation resembles a subtropical cyclone with weak convection
which is not concentrated near the center. However, an Air Force
plane recently penetrated Cristobal and found a minimum pressure of
983 mb and a partial eyewall. The strong winds of 75 to 80 kt
measured by the plane at flight level were not observed at the
surface during this time. Given such uncertainty, the initial
intensity has been kept at 70 kt at this time. The hurricane has a
small window of opportunity for strengthening before it moves to
higher latitudes and over cooler waters in a couple of days. The NHC
wind speed forecast is close to the latest intensity model
consensus and similar to the previous official one. After that time,
Cristobal is forecast to become a strong post-tropical storm with
hurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic later this week.

Aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Cristobal slowed down
earlier this morning, but as anticipated, it has resumed a northward
motion or 010 degrees at 10 knots. The steering pattern has not
changed and Cristobal should begin to move toward the northeast in
about 24 hours with an increase in forward speed as it becomes
embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is very
close to the multi-model consensus and similar to the GFS ensemble
mean AEMI, which has been performing quite well with this storm so
far. The forecast beyond 72 hours follows the input from the Ocean
Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 30.9N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 32.4N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 34.7N  69.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 37.5N  63.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 40.5N  56.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 48.0N  43.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/0600Z 53.0N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Avila


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