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National Weather Service Feed


000
ABNT20 KNHC 020550
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.

An area of low pressure could form between the west coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development through the
weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

...DOLLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HEADING TOWARD MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 the center of DOLLY was located near 22.6, -94.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

000
WTNT35 KNHC 020845
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

...DOLLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HEADING
TOWARD MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 94.8W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNTIL DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

000
WTNT25 KNHC 020844
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  94.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  94.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  94.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.1N  95.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.7N  97.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.1N  98.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N  94.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

000
WTNT45 KNHC 020845
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014
400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the
cyclone early this morning found 925 mb flight-level winds of 50-53
kt in the northeast quadrant and adjusted SFMR winds of at least 40
kt.  In addition, two ASCAT overpasses at 0313 UTC and 0406 UTC
indicated surface winds of 40-41 kt in the eastern quadrant. Based
on these wind data, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt,
making the cyclone the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic
hurricane season. These wind data also required the initial
position to be relocated about 60 nmi north of the previous track.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/12 kt, which is
based on a blend of passive microwave, scatterometer, and
conventional satellite fix data. Other than the northward relocation
of the center position, the forecast track reasoning remains
unchanged from the previous advisories. The tropical storm is
expected to gradually turn more toward the west-northwest as Dolly
skirts along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge that
is located across most of the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern
United States. Landfall along the northeastern coast of Mexico is
expected in about 24 hours, followed by dissipation in 48 hours
over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The
NHC forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCA, and lies
roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope.

About 20 kt of north-northwesterly vertical shear is affecting
Dolly, which has resulted in most of the convection being displaced
well to the south and east of the exposed low-level circulation.
However, new convection has recently developed near and just to the
southeast of the center, and with the shear forecast to decrease to
about 15 kt during the next 12 hours, some additional slight
strengthening is possible before Dolly makes landfall.

The surface wind data from the reconnaissance aircraft and the
two scatterometer passes indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind
field has expanded significantly in the eastern semicircle. Since
the pressure gradient between Dolly and the large high over the
Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain quite strong for the next 36
hours or so, the Government of Mexico has extended the tropical
storm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital. However, no
additional northward extension of the warning area appears likely
at this time.

The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, which is likely to cause flash flooding and mud slides
over portions of eastern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 22.6N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 23.1N  95.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 23.7N  97.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 24.1N  98.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart


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